ATM401/501 - Synoptic Laboratory II

2011

Round 1:


Tuesday 8 February: Gabe and Patty

Thursday 10 February: Ryan and Pat

Tuesday 15 February: Jen and Sara

Thursday 17 February: Matt (Corbi) and Rihaan

**winter break**

Tuesday 1 March: Chris (Selca) and Steve

Thursday 3 March: Alicia and Larry

Tuesday 8 March: Dan and Matt (Potter)

Thursday 10 March: Eric and Chris (Castellano)

Tuesday 15 March: Nicholas and Debbie

From Dr. Bosart on Tuesday 8 February:


The quintessential essence of being for a good map discussion should attempt to answer these six questions:


1. What has happened?

2. Why has it happened?

3. What is happening now?

4. Why is it happening?

5. What is going to happen?

6. Why is it going to happen?


In my experience far too many students focus on question five and never consider the other five questions. This situation arises for several reasons, the most likely of which is that the numerical and statistical guidance has become good enough often enough that forecasters having grown fat and happy from feeding at the St. GFS/NAM Lodge (aka the Bates Motel?) and have forgotten how to forage in the forest. Permit me to adopt a slightly contrarian perspective. Forecasters of the future who concentrate exclusively on question five while ignoring the other five questions will increasingly have difficulty passing the *value added test* (VAT, aka sniff test) that is going to determine which jobs will get automated out of existence or outsourced and which jobs will stand the test of time. To paraphrase that old Brylcreem commercial, a little VAT will do*ya....


As always, when you address the above points start with the big picture (large scale) first. Next consider the synoptic scale and how it relates to the larger (planetary) scale. Then discuss the mesoscale and note how it links to the synoptic scale. The observations always have value. Use them early and often, and appropriately, within the context of the above six questions. And, above all, employ sound dynamical reasoning for the whys and hows when you address questions 2, 4 and 6.


       Enough said for now....

Round 2:


Thursday 17 March: Jen and Sara

Tuesday 22 March: Gabe

Thursday 24 March: Matt (Potter) and Dan Tuesday 5 April: Chris (Selca) and Steve

Severe Weather and Heavy Precipitation Forecasting Exercises


Powerpoint Introduction


PDF Overview Document


7 April - Overview and introduction (See powerpoint)

14 April - SVR/QPF#1, group #1 lead

26 April - SVR/QPF#2, group #1 verification, group #2 lead

27 April - SVR/QPF#3, group #2 verification, group #3 lead

28 April - SVR/QPF#4, group #3 verification, group #4 lead

3 May - SVR/QPF#5, group #4 verification, group #5 lead


Group #1: The Frapocath team

Eric Franquist, Matt Potter, Chris Castellano, and Dan Thompson


Group #2: The McFugaco team

Patrick McNamara, Ryan Fucheck, Rihaan Gangat, and Matt Corbi


Group #3: The Begaglodi team

Alicia Bentley, Sara Ganetis, Larry Gloeckler, and Jen Diana


Group #4: The Seansu team

Chris Selca, Steve Andrew, and Patti Sullivan


Group #5: The Lusu-lola team

Debbie Lucia, Gabe Susca-Lopata, and Nick Lacativa