*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP942019 06/29/19 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       91%                                100%

LAT  (deg N)      7.3   8.1   8.9   9.7  10.0  10.3  11.0  11.8  12.2  13.0  13.2  13.6  14.0
LON  (deg W)    108.5 109.9 111.6 113.3 114.9 117.5 120.2 123.1 125.6 127.9 130.0 132.1 133.4
DTL  (km)        1340  1337  1362  1398  1491  1611  1709  1839  1981  2099  2251  2376  2357
TRACK SOURCE     AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   91% is  2.1 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:  100% is  1.8 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -7.9  15.6%      -2.0   -5.1  17.9%
VORTICITY          1.6    3.1  26.7%       1.5    3.4  30.7%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    9.8  17.5%      14.9    7.5  30.3%
RH                79.1   81.5  10.9%      74.8   77.1   6.7%
GOES              42.9   82.0  18.1%      42.8   82.0  13.0%
DVORAK             0.9    0.5   2.2%       0.9    0.5   1.4%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018