*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP022019 06/30/19 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                      100%                                100%

LAT  (deg N)     10.9  11.5  12.1  12.7  12.8  12.8  13.5  13.6  14.3  14.9  15.4  16.1  16.6
LON  (deg W)    111.1 112.5 113.8 115.3 116.7 118.8 120.9 122.3 123.6 125.0 126.5 127.9 130.1
DTL  (km)        1146  1189  1243  1264  1327  1458  1546  1627  1661  1723  1812  1859  1990
TRACK SOURCE     AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:  100% is  2.3 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:  100% is  1.8 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -9.1  15.3%      -2.0   -5.0  14.9%
VORTICITY          1.6    3.5  26.1%       1.5    4.2  31.3%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   10.2  15.0%      14.9    8.2  25.2%
RH                79.1   77.3   8.1%      74.8   76.3   5.5%
GOES              42.9   76.4  14.7%      42.8   76.4  10.2%
DVORAK             0.9    2.5  20.9%       0.9    2.5  12.9%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018