*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP972019 07/21/19 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       69%                                 89%

LAT  (deg N)     11.6  11.2  11.3  11.9  12.5  14.0  15.0  16.4  17.7  19.0  20.4  21.5  22.4
LON  (deg W)    116.8 117.7 117.9 118.1 118.3 118.6 119.0 119.1 119.5 119.9 120.1 120.6 121.2
DTL  (km)        1448  1536  1538  1493  1451  1341  1290  1171  1085  1014   937   898   865
TRACK SOURCE     AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   69% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   89% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    0.1   2.8%      -2.0    0.5   4.2%
VORTICITY          1.6    2.2  19.4%       1.5    2.1  23.4%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   14.5  12.9%      14.9    9.8  32.9%
RH                79.1   75.2   7.9%      74.8   72.1   6.5%
GOES              42.9   67.7  13.8%      42.8   67.7  12.2%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5  12.1%       0.9    1.5   9.4%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018