*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP902019 07/28/19 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       91%                                 98%

LAT  (deg N)     10.9  11.3  11.6  11.8  11.9  11.7  11.4  11.8  11.9  12.5  13.0  13.6  14.0
LON  (deg W)    107.2 109.4 111.1 112.9 114.6 117.5 120.2 122.7 125.3 127.8 130.6 133.5 136.5
DTL  (km)         920  1011  1083  1194  1316  1477  1675  1814  1983  2128  2311  2361  2040
TRACK SOURCE     AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   91% is  2.1 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   98% is  1.7 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -2.4   7.0%      -2.0   -2.9  12.7%
VORTICITY          1.6    3.1  26.7%       1.5    3.1  29.2%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    7.3  19.4%      14.9    9.6  30.1%
RH                79.1   82.5  11.3%      74.8   79.6   7.3%
GOES              42.9   61.6  13.5%      42.8   61.6  10.1%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5  13.1%       0.9    1.5   8.6%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018