*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP942019 08/14/19 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       25%                                 26%

LAT  (deg N)     13.3  14.2  14.8  15.2  15.6  16.7  17.7  18.0  18.6  19.3  19.9  20.9  21.9
LON  (deg W)    130.1 130.1 130.5 131.1 131.5 133.1 135.5 138.4 140.8 142.7 144.0 144.5 145.0
DTL  (km)        2250  2176  2159  2175  2177  2233  2042  1733  1473  1268  1130  1085  1053
TRACK SOURCE     AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   25% is  0.6 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   26% is  0.5 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    0.6   1.1%      -2.0    1.5   0.6%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.6   7.9%       1.5    1.2   6.4%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    9.6   8.6%      14.9   10.9  13.9%
RH                79.1   71.6   3.4%      74.8   66.7   2.3%
GOES              42.9   31.9   3.3%      42.8   31.9   2.4%
DVORAK             0.9    0.5   1.1%       0.9    0.5   0.7%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018