*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP942019 08/14/19 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       19%                                 23%

LAT  (deg N)     16.1  17.1  16.9  17.2  17.6  18.2  19.1  20.9  20.5  19.7  19.0  18.6  18.5
LON  (deg W)    127.5 127.9 129.2 129.9 130.7 132.7 135.5 136.0 138.7 141.9 145.7 149.2 152.3
DTL  (km)        1830  1780  1896  1930  1968  2101  2024  1963  1686  1347   961   598   287
TRACK SOURCE     AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   19% is  0.4 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   23% is  0.4 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    1.8   0.1%      -2.0    1.2   0.9%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.7   6.7%       1.5    1.2   5.8%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    9.4   6.8%      14.9   12.4  12.0%
RH                79.1   70.7   2.6%      74.8   62.7   1.7%
GOES              42.9   21.2   1.7%      42.8   21.2   1.4%
DVORAK             0.9    0.5   0.8%       0.9    0.5   0.6%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018