*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL912019 09/02/19 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       53%                                 86%

LAT  (deg N)     14.8  16.0  16.8  17.4  18.1  19.4  20.6  21.9  23.8  25.7  28.1  30.3  31.3
LON  (deg W)     27.7  28.3  29.3  30.2  30.8  32.0  33.1  33.9  34.6  35.5  36.6  38.1  39.6
DTL  (km)        1095  1164  1281  1386  1464  1574  1673  1750  1822  1934  2095  2241  2070
TRACK SOURCE     AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   53% is  1.8 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   86% is  2.0 times the sample mean (  43%)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -0.7   7.4%       1.0   -1.8  17.7%
VORTICITY          1.7    3.9  17.0%       1.4    3.8  34.6%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   10.2  19.9%      18.4   16.4  21.1%
RH                73.1   78.9  -0.2%      70.9   72.9   3.8%
GOES              29.1   44.3   2.4%      29.3   44.3   1.7%
DVORAK             0.8    1.0   6.9%       0.8    1.0   7.0%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018