*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL912019 09/03/19 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       69%                                 86%

LAT  (deg N)     16.4  17.2  17.9  18.4  18.5  19.1  20.0  21.3  22.8  24.4  26.1  28.9  30.1
LON  (deg W)     29.4  30.4  31.1  31.9  32.7  33.3  33.9  34.7  35.6  36.8  38.4  40.4  42.2
DTL  (km)        1285  1403  1490  1584  1665  1714  1762  1834  1921  2049  2228  2270  2074
TRACK SOURCE     AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09  AP09

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   69% is  2.3 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   86% is  2.0 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -0.6   8.3%       1.0   -1.0  14.5%
VORTICITY          1.7    3.9  19.6%       1.4    3.6  33.1%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3    8.5  24.2%      18.4   15.9  21.4%
RH                73.1   77.8  -0.3%      70.9   69.2   3.3%
GOES              29.1   52.0   3.2%      29.3   52.0   2.0%
DVORAK             0.8    1.5  13.6%       0.8    1.5  12.0%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018