*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL942019 09/06/19 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       29%                                 61%

LAT  (deg N)     13.5  13.3  13.1  13.3  13.6  13.7  13.5  13.5  13.3  13.2  12.9  13.1  13.2
LON  (deg W)     24.1  25.2  26.4  27.9  29.2  31.6  34.2  36.9  39.8  42.5  45.5  47.6  49.1
DTL  (km)         725   846   978  1133  1267  1523  1805  1854  1621  1401  1170  1050   982
TRACK SOURCE     AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN  AEMN

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   29% is  1.0 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   61% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -0.6   5.2%       1.0   -0.4  11.4%
VORTICITY          1.7    2.1   7.6%       1.4    2.0  19.3%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3    9.3  14.8%      18.4    6.7  24.9%
RH                73.1   71.7  -0.1%      70.9   71.6   3.3%
GOES              29.1    7.9   0.3%      29.3    7.9   0.3%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   1.4%       0.8    0.5   1.8%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018