*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP902019 09/12/19 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       85%                                 91%

LAT  (deg N)     14.7  15.0  15.2  15.3  15.4  16.7  16.9  17.7  18.9  20.0  21.1  22.0  22.8
LON  (deg W)    110.8 112.0 112.8 113.8 114.7 116.1 118.2 119.5 120.8 122.6 124.0 124.5 124.1
DTL  (km)         808   889   904   934   968   938  1070  1085  1094  1160  1176  1154  1069
TRACK SOURCE     AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   85% is  2.0 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   91% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -2.3   6.7%      -2.0   -1.0   8.5%
VORTICITY          1.6    2.3  20.7%       1.5    2.2  23.5%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    4.3  21.3%      14.9    8.8  32.7%
RH                79.1   80.9  10.5%      74.8   74.1   6.8%
GOES              42.9   60.9  13.1%      42.8   60.9  10.7%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5  12.8%       0.9    1.5   9.2%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018