*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP132019 09/25/19 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                        9%                                 17%

LAT  (deg N)     19.7  20.1  20.3  19.6  19.4  19.4  20.5  21.3  22.4  23.3  24.0  24.1  23.6
LON  (deg W)    141.0 141.5 142.4 143.2 144.0 145.1 144.6 144.9 144.6 144.5 144.4 144.3 144.2
DTL  (km)        1444  1392  1298  1214  1131  1016  1069  1046  1109  1146  1182  1200  1190
TRACK SOURCE     AP03  AP03  AP03  AP03  AP03  AP03  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:    9% is  0.2 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   17% is  0.3 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    2.4   0.0%      -2.0    1.7   0.4%
VORTICITY          1.6    0.2   2.3%       1.5    0.4   3.0%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   28.7   1.0%      14.9   27.8   8.1%
RH                79.1   48.7   0.0%      74.8   45.2   0.3%
GOES              42.9   18.2   1.3%      42.8   18.2   1.2%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5   4.6%       0.9    1.5   3.6%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018