*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP952019 10/04/19 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       38%                                 38%

LAT  (deg N)     13.4  13.6  13.8  14.2  14.8  16.1  17.3  18.7  21.6  22.4  23.4  24.8  26.4
LON  (deg W)    125.6 125.6 125.8 126.3 127.0 128.7 130.5 132.6 132.1 132.3 132.3 132.4 132.0
DTL  (km)        1885  1869  1870  1880  1896  1919  1972  2061  1851  1788  1706  1602  1441
TRACK SOURCE     AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   38% is  0.9 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   38% is  0.7 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    1.9   0.1%      -2.0    1.3   1.4%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.0   7.8%       1.5   -0.2   2.0%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   11.8  10.4%      14.9   14.9  20.0%
RH                79.1   77.4   6.1%      74.8   68.2   3.8%
GOES              42.9   37.8   5.3%      42.8   37.8   4.5%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5   8.5%       0.9    1.5   6.4%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018