*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP952019 10/04/19 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       50%                                 77%

LAT  (deg N)     13.1  13.3  13.2  13.4  13.9  14.7  15.2  15.1  15.3  16.4  16.8  17.2  17.5
LON  (deg W)    125.9 126.0 126.1 126.8 127.3 128.9 130.6 135.2 137.6 137.9 139.2 140.8 142.5
DTL  (km)        1932  1924  1940  1980  1985  2047  2135  2136  1882  1819  1674  1498  1315
TRACK SOURCE     AP18  AP18  AP18  AP18  AP18  AP18  AP18  AP18  AP18  AP18  AP18  AP18  AP18

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   50% is  1.2 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   77% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    0.6   1.8%      -2.0    0.0   5.5%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.2  10.7%       1.5    1.6  17.6%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   10.0  13.5%      14.9    8.6  31.3%
RH                79.1   79.3   7.8%      74.8   78.1   7.2%
GOES              42.9   37.8   6.3%      42.8   37.8   6.2%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5  10.2%       0.9    1.5   8.8%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018