*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP072020 07/21/20 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       10%                                 11%

LAT  (deg N)     21.0  21.3  21.7  22.1  22.5  23.5  24.5  25.7  26.8  27.9  28.7  29.5  30.2
LON  (deg W)    133.1 134.6 136.1 137.6 139.1 141.7 143.8 145.2 145.9 146.1 146.0 145.8 145.2
DTL  (km)        1963  2042  1957  1808  1664  1425  1266  1198  1209  1277  1342  1412  1504
TRACK SOURCE     TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   10% is  0.2 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   11% is  0.2 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -0.6   1.4%      -2.0   -0.5   2.8%
VORTICITY          1.6   -0.4   0.8%       1.5   -0.6   0.0%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   15.6   4.6%      14.9   34.0   6.5%
RH                79.1   46.1   0.0%      74.8   38.3   0.0%
GOES              42.9    0.0   0.0%      42.8    0.0   0.0%
DVORAK             0.9    1.0   2.7%       0.9    1.0   2.1%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018