*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP942020 08/16/20 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       77%                                 83%

LAT  (deg N)     16.9  18.0  19.1  20.0  20.8  22.1  23.2  23.6  23.3  22.5  21.9  21.0  20.2
LON  (deg W)    119.2 119.6 120.4 121.4 122.5 124.8 127.7 130.3 132.8 135.2 137.6 139.2 140.6
DTL  (km)        1133  1068  1047  1076  1087  1173  1372  1561  1747  1980  1807  1634  1486
TRACK SOURCE     AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14  AP14

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   77% is  1.8 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   83% is  1.5 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    0.7   2.0%      -2.0    1.0   2.7%
VORTICITY          1.6    3.3  27.0%       1.5    2.5  25.8%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    5.7  19.6%      14.9    6.6  34.1%
RH                79.1   75.9   8.3%      74.8   65.5   5.0%
GOES              42.9   38.5   7.9%      42.8   38.5   6.7%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5  12.4%       0.9    1.5   9.2%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018