*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL912020 09/03/20 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       15%                                 59%

LAT  (deg N)     11.9  11.6  11.0  10.5  10.2   9.9  10.0  10.3  11.0  12.5  13.7  14.1  14.4
LON  (deg W)     36.5  37.0  37.5  37.9  38.6  39.5  40.8  40.8  39.9  37.3  37.1  37.6  38.4
DTL  (km)        1689  1645  1569  1507  1463  1401  1319  1336  1461  1737  1872  1863  1816
TRACK SOURCE     AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   15% is  0.5 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   59% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -1.1   3.6%       1.0   -1.5  15.0%
VORTICITY          1.7    1.7   4.0%       1.4    1.9  18.2%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   18.9   6.6%      18.4   13.8  20.5%
RH                73.1   73.5  -0.1%      70.9   76.4   3.3%
GOES              29.1    9.1   0.2%      29.3    9.1   0.3%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   0.9%       0.8    0.5   1.8%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018