*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL912020 09/04/20 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       33%                                 68%

LAT  (deg N)     11.3  10.9  10.3  10.2  10.1  10.4  10.8  11.8  12.1  12.9  13.5  13.9  14.2
LON  (deg W)     37.1  38.2  39.1  39.4  39.8  40.9  40.9  40.0  38.2  36.4  36.8  37.7  38.9
DTL  (km)        1610  1546  1460  1435  1407  1333  1358  1502  1678  1800  1856  1841  1760
TRACK SOURCE     AP04  AP04  AP04  AP04  AP04  AP04  AP04  AP04  AP04  AP04  AP04  AP04  AP04

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   33% is  1.1 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   68% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -2.4   8.6%       1.0   -1.6  16.2%
VORTICITY          1.7    1.6   7.0%       1.4    2.0  20.0%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   20.0  11.3%      18.4   15.0  21.0%
RH                73.1   75.5  -0.2%      70.9   77.6   3.3%
GOES              29.1   12.1   0.5%      29.3   12.1   0.4%
DVORAK             0.8    1.0   5.4%       0.8    1.0   6.7%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018