*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL982020 09/17/20 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       43%                                 58%

LAT  (deg N)     11.1  11.5  12.0  12.5  13.1  14.2  15.4  16.5  17.4  17.7  17.9  18.5  19.6
LON  (deg W)     27.9  29.2  30.7  32.1  33.7  36.7  39.6  42.2  44.5  46.2  47.5  48.7  49.5
DTL  (km)        1198  1318  1460  1597  1757  1934  1794  1705  1633  1568  1528  1534  1573
TRACK SOURCE     AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   43% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   58% is  1.3 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -3.1  11.6%       1.0   -1.6  14.9%
VORTICITY          1.7    1.8   9.1%       1.4    1.7  16.8%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   16.8  15.3%      18.4   20.1  16.7%
RH                73.1   71.0  -0.2%      70.9   64.6   2.3%
GOES              29.1   15.8   0.8%      29.3   15.8   0.5%
DVORAK             0.8    1.0   6.5%       0.8    1.0   6.2%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018