*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL172020 09/20/20 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       28%                                 28%

LAT  (deg N)     35.0  34.1  33.6  33.6  33.8  34.2  35.4  35.7  35.5  35.9  37.8  43.8  45.7
LON  (deg W)     30.4  30.9  30.7  29.7  28.5  24.3  19.0  15.2  12.2   9.1   3.1 -50.8 -99.1
DTL  (km)        1824  1820  1780  1696  1606  1283   924   584   344   134   -18  9999  9999
TRACK SOURCE     AP17  AP17  AP17  AP17  AP17  AP17  AP17  AP17  AP17  AP17  AP17  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   28% is  0.9 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   28% is  0.7 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0    0.8   3.2%       1.0    0.3   5.7%
VORTICITY          1.7    3.2  10.3%       1.4    2.4  13.6%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   11.9  13.4%      18.4   30.1   7.2%
RH                73.1   52.0   0.0%      70.9   54.7   0.7%
GOES              29.1    0.0   0.0%      29.3    0.0   0.0%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   1.4%       0.8    0.5   1.1%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018