*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL172020 09/21/20 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       27%                                 49%

LAT  (deg N)     34.1  33.6  33.5  33.6  33.6  34.4  35.2  35.4  36.7  37.6  40.5  45.2  46.2
LON  (deg W)     31.4  31.3  30.3  28.8  26.9  21.4  18.0  15.0  12.0   9.3   2.8 -56.5-110.7
DTL  (km)        1862  1832  1742  1620  1466  1076   843   578   279    40  -241  9999  9999
TRACK SOURCE     AP11  AP11  AP11  AP11  AP11  AP11  AP11  AP11  AP11  AP11  AP11  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   27% is  0.9 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   49% is  1.1 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -0.2   4.4%       1.0   -1.7  13.9%
VORTICITY          1.7    3.3  10.1%       1.4    2.8  21.5%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   16.7  11.2%      18.4   28.6  10.9%
RH                73.1   51.5   0.0%      70.9   54.5   0.9%
GOES              29.1    0.0   0.0%      29.3    0.0   0.0%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   1.3%       0.8    0.5   1.6%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018