*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL172020 09/21/20 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       16%                                 28%

LAT  (deg N)     34.4  34.0  33.8  33.8  33.9  35.4  35.6  35.6  35.7  37.3  39.8  43.8  44.8
LON  (deg W)     30.3  29.8  28.9  27.5  25.4  20.2  17.3  15.2  12.5   9.7   4.7 -50.9-101.3
DTL  (km)        1785  1723  1639  1525  1357  1030   770   587   357    72  -281  9999  9999
TRACK SOURCE     AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   16% is  0.5 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   28% is  0.6 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0    0.9   2.0%       1.0   -0.4   6.7%
VORTICITY          1.7    2.9   6.2%       1.4    2.3  12.6%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   18.0   7.2%      18.4   31.4   6.3%
RH                73.1   51.9   0.0%      70.9   56.1   0.7%
GOES              29.1    0.0   0.0%      29.3    0.0   0.0%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   0.9%       0.8    0.5   1.1%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018