*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL902021 05/20/21 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       18%                                 49%

LAT  (deg N)     33.9  35.3  35.7  35.9  34.8  32.4  31.6  32.1  33.3  33.7  34.0  34.8  36.3
LON  (deg W)     54.0  55.0  56.7  59.2  62.4  65.0  64.9  64.6  63.6  62.3  59.0  55.8  56.1
DTL  (km)        1399  1219  1122  1001  1002  1065  1108  1112  1109  1123  1196  1238  1078
TRACK SOURCE     AP06  AP06  AP06  AP06  AP06  AP06  AP06  AP06  AP06  AP06  AP06  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   18% is  0.6 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   49% is  1.1 times the sample mean (  43%)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -1.1   4.1%       1.0   -0.2   9.5%
VORTICITY          1.7    3.9   8.4%       1.4    3.2  24.2%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   34.7   3.1%      18.4   29.4  10.5%
RH                73.1   64.8  -0.1%      70.9   60.5   1.6%
GOES              29.1   42.1   1.1%      29.3   42.1   1.3%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   1.0%       0.8    0.5   1.6%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018