*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL902021 05/20/21 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       39%                                 68%

LAT  (deg N)     35.3  36.3  35.6  33.9  33.7  34.1  34.0  33.2  33.8  35.1  36.5  37.7  38.8
LON  (deg W)     55.1  57.5  60.5  61.7  61.6  63.3  65.1  65.1  63.6  61.0  57.2  51.8  46.3
DTL  (km)        1215  1036   976  1116  1140  1049   973  1025  1061  1010  1023  1005  1038
TRACK SOURCE     AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   39% is  1.3 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   68% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -0.7   6.6%       1.0    0.0  10.7%
VORTICITY          1.7    5.0  18.8%       1.4    4.1  35.1%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   24.6  10.6%      18.4   21.8  17.0%
RH                73.1   64.4  -0.1%      70.9   62.7   2.2%
GOES              29.1   38.7   1.8%      29.3   38.7   1.4%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   1.7%       0.8    0.5   1.9%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018