*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL912021 08/04/21 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       11%                                 32%

LAT  (deg N)     16.0  16.3  16.5  16.6  16.2  15.6  15.4  15.8  15.9  15.9  16.0  16.2  16.3
LON  (deg W)     23.2  23.7  24.2  24.6  25.5  27.5  29.1  30.3  31.5  33.1  35.3  37.6  40.4
DTL  (km)         625   684   741   785   870  1076  1248  1373  1508  1678  1912  2007  1813
TRACK SOURCE     AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   11% is  0.4 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   32% is  0.7 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0    1.9   0.7%       1.0    0.1   6.3%
VORTICITY          1.7    1.4   2.6%       1.4    0.8   7.3%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   18.1   5.0%      18.4   16.6  12.5%
RH                73.1   78.1  -0.1%      70.9   65.6   1.6%
GOES              29.1    1.4   0.0%      29.3    1.4   0.0%
DVORAK             0.8    1.0   2.2%       0.8    1.0   4.2%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018