*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL962021 08/16/21 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       44%                                 50%

LAT  (deg N)     33.3  32.8  32.3  31.9  31.4  30.7  30.8  30.9  31.3  31.5  32.4  33.1  34.5
LON  (deg W)     62.7  62.9  62.9  63.3  63.6  64.7  65.7  67.4  69.1  70.9  72.4  73.1  72.8
DTL  (km)        1154  1190  1238  1234  1229  1170  1081   938   779   634   462   361   304
TRACK SOURCE     AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   44% is  1.5 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   50% is  1.2 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -0.7   6.9%       1.0    0.0   9.2%
VORTICITY          1.7    0.9   6.0%       1.4    0.9  10.2%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3    7.1  20.2%      18.4   12.3  19.3%
RH                73.1   61.2  -0.1%      70.9   60.6   1.7%
GOES              29.1    5.1   0.3%      29.3    5.1   0.2%
DVORAK             0.8    1.5  11.0%       0.8    1.5   9.8%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018