*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL972021 08/27/21 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       37%                                 39%

LAT  (deg N)     32.8  32.8  32.6  33.0  33.7  34.4  36.3  37.5  39.9  42.5  45.5  50.3  52.4
LON  (deg W)     52.7  52.2  51.2  51.3  49.8  48.0  45.6  42.2  38.1  35.5  35.6  35.2  33.6
DTL  (km)        1544  1546  1575  1530  1471  1433  1313  1361  1429  1468  1335  1301  1432
TRACK SOURCE     AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   37% is  1.2 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   39% is  0.9 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -0.9   6.7%       1.0   -0.9   9.7%
VORTICITY          1.7    1.0   5.8%       1.4    1.5  11.9%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   16.5  14.0%      18.4   34.4   6.9%
RH                73.1   61.6  -0.1%      70.9   63.1   1.6%
GOES              29.1   12.3   0.6%      29.3   12.3   0.3%
DVORAK             0.8    1.5  10.0%       0.8    1.5   8.2%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018