*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL972021 08/28/21 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       34%                                 60%

LAT  (deg N)     32.8  33.1  33.3  32.7  32.9  34.0  36.2  37.8  40.5  47.8  53.5  57.8  60.8
LON  (deg W)     51.8  51.7  51.4  50.9  50.5  48.6  45.2  40.3  37.7  34.5  37.5  39.2  36.9
DTL  (km)        1548  1515  1496  1567  1549  1461  1339  1444  1417  1367  1203  1168  1379
TRACK SOURCE     AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07  AP07

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   34% is  1.1 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   60% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -0.8   6.1%       1.0   -1.1  13.8%
VORTICITY          1.7    1.2   6.1%       1.4    2.2  20.3%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   19.1  12.0%      18.4   29.0  12.2%
RH                73.1   57.1  -0.1%      70.9   64.5   2.4%
GOES              29.1    5.1   0.2%      29.3    5.1   0.2%
DVORAK             0.8    1.5   9.4%       0.8    1.5  10.9%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018