*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL972021 08/29/21 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       29%                                 59%

LAT  (deg N)     33.2  34.4  35.4  35.7  36.5  38.7  42.7  46.6  51.6  53.8  55.0  55.0  54.0
LON  (deg W)     50.3  48.7  46.9  45.4  42.8  38.3  34.9  34.6  38.0  42.6  47.7  49.6  51.4
DTL  (km)        1518  1416  1358  1381  1420  1500  1504  1380  1119   881   570   460   308
TRACK SOURCE     AP16  AP16  AP16  AP16  AP16  AP16  AP16  AP16  AP16  AP16  AP16  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   29% is  1.0 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   59% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -1.4   6.5%       1.0   -0.2  10.6%
VORTICITY          1.7    1.6   6.5%       1.4    2.1  19.6%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   37.2   3.6%      18.4   31.2  10.9%
RH                73.1   60.1  -0.1%      70.9   64.8   2.4%
GOES              29.1   15.3   0.6%      29.3   15.3   0.5%
DVORAK             0.8    2.0  12.1%       0.8    2.0  15.4%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018