*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL972021 08/29/21 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       39%                                 79%

LAT  (deg N)     33.3  34.3  35.2  36.1  37.2  40.0  44.5  50.1  55.6  58.0  58.3  58.9  61.8
LON  (deg W)     50.0  49.0  47.5  45.6  43.3  39.4  37.7  39.2  43.6  48.8  48.1  45.5  41.0
DTL  (km)        1512  1420  1361  1333  1330  1334  1216  1012   839   698   746   907  1132
TRACK SOURCE     AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  AP25  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   39% is  1.3 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   79% is  1.8 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -3.1  10.8%       1.0   -2.5  19.9%
VORTICITY          1.7    2.1   9.4%       1.4    2.7  25.9%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   39.8   3.1%      18.4   30.6  12.2%
RH                73.1   62.0  -0.1%      70.9   71.2   3.5%
GOES              29.1   15.3   0.7%      29.3   15.3   0.6%
DVORAK             0.8    2.0  14.6%       0.8    2.0  16.7%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018