*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL902021 08/31/21 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       76%                                100%

LAT  (deg N)      9.5  10.6  11.5  10.7  11.3  11.0  11.4  12.8  15.1  18.0  20.7  23.5  26.7
LON  (deg W)     16.6  17.1  18.9  20.9  22.6  26.8  26.9  28.2  30.7  33.8  35.3  36.7  36.6
DTL  (km)         226   180   241   476   638  1092  1085  1175  1417  1773  1900  2035  2061
TRACK SOURCE     AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02  AP02

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   76% is  2.5 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:  100% is  2.3 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -2.9  14.5%       1.0   -2.7  20.9%
VORTICITY          1.7    4.3  22.5%       1.4    4.9  42.6%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   14.6  21.4%      18.4   16.8  20.7%
RH                73.1   88.8  -0.1%      70.9   84.6   2.2%
GOES              29.1   45.7   3.0%      29.3   45.7   1.8%
DVORAK             0.8    1.5  14.4%       0.8    1.5  11.9%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018