*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL932021 09/12/21 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                        9%                                 15%

LAT  (deg N)     18.2  17.7  16.2  15.0  14.5  13.9  13.6  13.4  13.2  13.1  13.2  13.1  13.2
LON  (deg W)     25.8  27.3  29.1  30.4  31.3  33.3  35.2  36.8  38.4  40.1  42.0  44.0  46.8
DTL  (km)         961  1094  1251  1385  1482  1704  1908  1843  1736  1578  1438  1289  1109
TRACK SOURCE     AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:    9% is  0.3 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   15% is  0.3 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0    3.0   0.0%       1.0    1.6   1.7%
VORTICITY          1.7    1.2   2.5%       1.4    0.8   4.0%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   14.9   5.6%      18.4   13.6   7.6%
RH                73.1   61.8   0.0%      70.9   60.5   0.7%
GOES              29.1   14.4   0.2%      29.3   14.4   0.2%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   0.6%       0.8    0.5   0.7%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018