*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL972021 09/19/21 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       58%                                 70%

LAT  (deg N)     10.1  11.5  12.6  13.0  13.7  15.9  17.8  19.9  20.9  22.1  23.3  24.6  25.7
LON  (deg W)     27.2  27.0  27.5  28.6  29.4  31.4  33.3  35.2  36.3  38.1  40.1  42.8  44.3
DTL  (km)        1157  1091  1106  1213  1287  1494  1717  1898  2002  2183  2382  2413  2353
TRACK SOURCE     AP29  AP29  AP29  AP29  AP29  AP29  AP29  AP29  AP29  AP29  AP29  AP29  AP29

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   58% is  1.9 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   70% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0    0.2   5.9%       1.0    0.0  10.8%
VORTICITY          1.7    2.3  11.9%       1.4    1.7  18.2%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3    9.8  21.1%      18.4   15.1  21.1%
RH                73.1   75.2  -0.2%      70.9   66.8   2.8%
GOES              29.1   30.7   1.7%      29.3   30.7   1.1%
DVORAK             0.8    2.0  17.5%       0.8    2.0  16.3%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018