* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * GFS VERSION * * AL982021 09/22/21 06 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 Prob of Genesis 46% 79% LAT (deg N) 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.7 8.8 9.3 10.3 11.3 12.4 13.0 13.8 14.5 15.1 LON (deg W) 30.9 32.3 33.7 35.1 36.3 38.7 41.0 43.4 45.0 46.3 47.3 48.9 50.0 DTL (km) 1586 1546 1456 1399 1363 1363 1318 1181 1159 1124 1133 1122 1132 TRACK SOURCE AP28 AP28 AP28 AP28 AP28 AP28 AP28 AP28 AP28 AP28 AP28 AP28 AP28 TCGI 0-48h Genesis Forecast: 46% is 1.5 times the sample mean ( 30%) TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast: 79% is 1.9 times the sample mean ( 43%) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG TCGI CONT AVG TCGI CONT DIVERGENCE -1.0 -2.0 9.2% 1.0 -3.4 23.2% VORTICITY 1.7 2.1 9.7% 1.4 2.0 20.8% VERTICAL SHEAR 16.3 6.7 19.9% 18.4 11.4 23.9% RH 73.1 79.9 -0.2% 70.9 76.7 3.6% GOES 29.1 24.4 1.2% 29.3 24.4 0.9% DVORAK 0.8 1.0 6.3% 0.8 1.0 6.9% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) GENESIS CLIM = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) DIVERGENCE = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1) VORTICITY = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1) VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) RH = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%) GOES = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%) DVORAK = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB Version 3.0, July 2018