*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL982021 09/22/21 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       76%                                100%

LAT  (deg N)      8.2   8.3   8.6   9.8   9.3  10.8  11.4  12.0  12.7  13.5  14.1  15.3  16.6
LON  (deg W)     31.5  32.5  34.5  37.5  38.3  39.9  42.4  44.0  45.3  46.7  48.1  49.6  51.1
DTL  (km)        1550  1497  1416  1438  1368  1449  1269  1193  1166  1141  1119  1170  1248
TRACK SOURCE     AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15  AP15

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   76% is  2.5 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:  100% is  2.3 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -2.3  13.2%       1.0   -4.0  25.8%
VORTICITY          1.7    2.2  13.4%       1.4    2.8  26.6%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3    5.9  27.2%      18.4    6.9  26.8%
RH                73.1   80.6  -0.2%      70.9   81.2   2.8%
GOES              29.1   28.0   1.8%      29.3   28.0   1.1%
DVORAK             0.8    2.0  20.4%       0.8    2.0  16.9%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018