*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL162021 09/27/21 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                        8%                                  9%

LAT  (deg N)     30.1  30.7  31.2  31.8  32.4  33.4  35.2  38.6  42.6  45.9  48.7  50.0  50.2
LON  (deg W)     59.1  58.9  58.9  58.9  58.6  58.0  57.3  54.9  51.5  46.9  38.7  27.6  16.8
DTL  (km)        1466  1533  1485  1423  1373  1298  1159   899   467   486  1049  1231   498
TRACK SOURCE     AP06  AP06  AP06  AP06  AP06  AP06  AP06  AP06  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:    8% is  0.3 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:    9% is  0.2 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -0.6   2.3%       1.0   -0.2   4.0%
VORTICITY          1.7    0.2   1.2%       1.4    0.2   2.5%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   28.3   3.2%      18.4   43.8   1.4%
RH                73.1   62.7   0.0%      70.9   62.1   0.8%
GOES              29.1    9.6   0.2%      29.3    9.6   0.1%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   0.6%       0.8    0.5   0.7%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018