*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL902021 09/29/21 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       90%                                100%

LAT  (deg N)      7.7   7.7   8.6   9.2   9.4   9.9  10.1  10.8  12.5  15.1  17.9  21.3  24.4
LON  (deg W)     23.0  23.4  24.0  25.3  26.3  28.4  30.4  31.9  33.3  35.0  36.7  38.2  39.0
DTL  (km)         842   878   882   986  1082  1290  1493  1622  1725  1879  2076  2197  2272
TRACK SOURCE     AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19  AP19

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   90% is  3.0 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:  100% is  2.3 times the sample mean (  43%)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -6.9  26.6%       1.0   -7.0  36.1%
VORTICITY          1.7    3.4  20.1%       1.4    3.4  31.3%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3    7.4  28.6%      18.4   16.6  20.6%
RH                73.1   82.7  -0.2%      70.9   84.4   2.2%
GOES              29.1   77.2   5.5%      29.3   77.2   2.9%
DVORAK             0.8    1.0   9.1%       0.8    1.0   6.9%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018