*          ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX           *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           AL912021 09/30/21 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       43%                                 68%

LAT  (deg N)      6.0   6.2   6.5   6.7   6.8   7.4  13.2  15.2  16.6  19.4  22.0  25.8  29.3
LON  (deg W)     34.3  34.3  34.1  33.7  33.3  32.4  32.8  35.0  36.1  38.0  39.8  40.0  39.1
DTL  (km)        1174  1193  1233  1275  1309  1421  1659  1878  1999  2197  2338  2384  2289
TRACK SOURCE     AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08  AP08

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   43% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  30%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   68% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  43%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -1.0   -3.8  12.9%       1.0   -2.9  20.6%
VORTICITY          1.7    1.9   9.2%       1.4    2.3  22.1%
VERTICAL SHEAR    16.3   11.2  18.2%      18.4   18.0  19.2%
RH                73.1   75.8  -0.2%      70.9   70.9   3.4%
GOES              29.1   20.3   1.0%      29.3   20.3   0.7%
DVORAK             0.8    0.5   1.8%       0.8    0.5   1.9%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018