* NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * GFS VERSION * * EP922021 06/12/21 18 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 Prob of Genesis 15% 16% LAT (deg N) 13.9 14.1 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.3 13.0 12.6 12.0 11.1 9.8 8.7 7.6 LON (deg W) 123.4 124.8 126.2 127.6 128.9 131.5 133.9 136.2 138.2 140.1 141.9 143.9 145.9 DTL (km) 1676 1770 1883 2007 2133 2355 2337 2131 1956 1838 1753 1685 1632 TRACK SOURCE TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TCGI 0-48h Genesis Forecast: 15% is 0.3 times the sample mean ( 44%) TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast: 16% is 0.3 times the sample mean ( 56%) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG TCGI CONT AVG TCGI CONT DIVERGENCE -2.0 0.0 1.1% -2.0 0.9 1.2% VORTICITY 1.6 0.4 2.8% 1.5 0.1 2.1% VERTICAL SHEAR 12.9 14.8 4.8% 14.9 28.4 8.0% RH 79.1 44.7 0.0% 74.8 40.9 0.0% GOES 42.9 23.3 1.7% 42.8 23.3 1.6% DVORAK 0.9 1.5 4.6% 0.9 1.5 3.6% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) GENESIS CLIM = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) DIVERGENCE = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1) VORTICITY = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1) VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) RH = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%) GOES = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%) DVORAK = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB Version 3.0, July 2018