* NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * GFS VERSION * * EP922021 06/12/21 18 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 Prob of Genesis 40% 40% LAT (deg N) 11.0 11.1 11.0 10.7 10.4 9.2 7.8 6.9 6.7 7.4 8.9 10.7 11.8 LON (deg W) 124.8 125.5 126.1 126.6 126.9 127.2 127.1 126.5 125.6 124.6 123.9 123.1 122.5 DTL (km) 2025 2069 2117 2171 2229 2352 2460 2505 2462 2332 2150 1941 1799 TRACK SOURCE TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TCGI 0-48h Genesis Forecast: 40% is 0.9 times the sample mean ( 44%) TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast: 40% is 0.7 times the sample mean ( 56%) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG TCGI CONT AVG TCGI CONT DIVERGENCE -2.0 -0.4 2.6% -2.0 2.0 0.0% VORTICITY 1.6 1.7 11.4% 1.5 1.1 8.9% VERTICAL SHEAR 12.9 12.7 10.2% 14.9 13.0 19.3% RH 79.1 67.2 3.5% 74.8 64.3 3.0% GOES 42.9 23.3 3.3% 42.8 23.3 2.6% DVORAK 0.9 1.5 8.7% 0.9 1.5 5.9% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) GENESIS CLIM = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) DIVERGENCE = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1) VORTICITY = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1) VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) RH = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%) GOES = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%) DVORAK = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB Version 3.0, July 2018