*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP032021 06/16/21 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       14%                                 18%

LAT  (deg N)      6.7   6.5   6.4   6.3   6.3   6.4   6.4   6.5   7.0   7.8   8.7   9.6  10.5
LON  (deg W)    137.7 138.0 138.2 138.5 138.8 139.5 140.7 142.3 144.4 146.5 148.6 151.0 153.6
DTL  (km)        2330  2319  2311  2298  2273  2206  2110  1975  1787  1576  1356  1139   953
TRACK SOURCE     TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   14% is  0.3 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   18% is  0.3 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0    1.2   0.4%      -2.0    1.4   0.6%
VORTICITY          1.6    0.6   3.2%       1.5   -0.2   1.1%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    7.9   6.7%      14.9   12.8  11.9%
RH                79.1   60.3   0.9%      74.8   61.2   1.6%
GOES              42.9    6.9   0.4%      42.8    6.9   0.4%
DVORAK             0.9    1.0   2.7%       0.9    1.0   2.1%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018