* NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * GFS VERSION * * EP952021 06/24/21 12 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 Prob of Genesis 58% 89% LAT (deg N) 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.4 17.8 17.9 17.5 17.0 16.8 17.4 18.4 LON (deg W) 96.8 97.9 99.0 100.0 101.1 103.1 105.4 107.5 109.4 109.4 107.9 106.2 105.5 DTL (km) 106 79 72 69 59 69 174 317 499 536 425 247 118 TRACK SOURCE TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TABM TCGI 0-48h Genesis Forecast: 58% is 1.3 times the sample mean ( 44%) TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast: 89% is 1.6 times the sample mean ( 56%) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG TCGI CONT AVG TCGI CONT DIVERGENCE -2.0 -6.8 11.7% -2.0 -5.0 19.9% VORTICITY 1.6 0.7 8.3% 1.5 1.6 18.7% VERTICAL SHEAR 12.9 13.1 12.7% 14.9 17.0 28.0% RH 79.1 83.2 9.4% 74.8 80.8 7.5% GOES 42.9 52.7 9.7% 42.8 52.7 9.4% DVORAK 0.9 1.0 6.5% 0.9 1.0 5.5% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) GENESIS CLIM = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) DIVERGENCE = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1) VORTICITY = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1) VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) RH = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%) GOES = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%) DVORAK = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB Version 3.0, July 2018