*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP952021 06/25/21 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       76%                                 95%

LAT  (deg N)     14.3  14.5  15.1  15.2  15.1  15.3  15.4  15.5  15.5  15.3  15.4  15.6  16.5
LON  (deg W)     99.8 100.2 101.1 102.4 102.7 102.5 102.6 102.1 102.1 102.1 102.1 102.9 104.3
DTL  (km)         250   248   227   277   303   273   270   231   231   251   241   266   224
TRACK SOURCE     AP12  AP12  AP12  AP12  AP12  AP12  AP12  AP12  AP12  AP12  AP12  AP12  AP12

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   76% is  1.7 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   95% is  1.7 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -2.3   6.5%      -2.0   -5.0  18.9%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.3  13.4%       1.5    1.4  16.1%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   11.0  15.6%      14.9   10.3  30.6%
RH                79.1   82.2  10.6%      74.8   82.3   6.5%
GOES              42.9   59.7  12.3%      42.8   59.7  10.1%
DVORAK             0.9    2.0  17.5%       0.9    2.0  12.6%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018