*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP972021 07/17/21 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       94%                                 94%

LAT  (deg N)     17.5  18.0  18.3  18.3  18.1  17.6  17.6  18.5  20.2  21.5  22.0  22.2  22.5
LON  (deg W)    110.2 111.6 113.0 114.4 115.7 117.8 119.7 122.2 125.5 129.5 133.7 137.7 141.2
DTL  (km)         570   566   603   690   796   984  1110  1240  1364  1621  1920  1806  1452
TRACK SOURCE     TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   94% is  2.2 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   94% is  1.7 times the sample mean (  56%)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -0.7   4.2%      -2.0    0.6   4.2%
VORTICITY          1.6    3.2  28.1%       1.5    2.5  28.1%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    5.9  20.7%      14.9   18.7  28.6%
RH                79.1   70.5   6.7%      74.8   68.5   6.1%
GOES              42.9   44.9   9.8%      42.8   44.9   8.5%
DVORAK             0.9    2.5  24.2%       0.9    2.5  18.3%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018