*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP992021 07/28/21 06 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       41%                                 76%

LAT  (deg N)     12.8  13.1  13.2  13.4  13.3  13.1  12.9  13.0  13.4  13.8  14.3  14.8  15.2
LON  (deg W)    117.6 118.1 118.8 119.5 120.4 121.9 123.1 123.9 124.9 126.2 128.0 130.1 132.2
DTL  (km)        1380  1385  1423  1456  1531  1645  1743  1790  1831  1902  2015  2128  2263
TRACK SOURCE     AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI  AEMI

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   41% is  0.9 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   76% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -1.6   3.8%      -2.0   -1.6   9.5%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.3   9.9%       1.5    1.7  18.6%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9   12.2  10.7%      14.9   10.2  30.2%
RH                79.1   77.4   6.3%      74.8   78.6   7.3%
GOES              42.9   34.0   5.0%      42.8   34.0   5.6%
DVORAK             0.9    1.0   5.2%       0.9    1.0   5.1%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018