*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP992021 07/29/21 00 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       54%                                 81%

LAT  (deg N)     13.4  13.3  13.3  13.5  13.5  13.4  12.9  12.1  11.4  11.7  13.4  16.8  21.5
LON  (deg W)    120.1 120.6 121.2 121.9 122.5 123.2 124.1 125.4 126.1 125.7 126.1 126.4 126.8
DTL  (km)        1500  1546  1583  1610  1650  1707  1813  1974  2083  2029  1924  1693  1382
TRACK SOURCE     AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01  AP01

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   54% is  1.2 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   81% is  1.4 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -1.6   4.5%      -2.0   -1.1   8.5%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.8  14.6%       1.5    2.1  21.9%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    8.9  14.8%      14.9    8.8  32.1%
RH                79.1   76.9   7.4%      74.8   77.3   7.3%
GOES              42.9   13.7   2.2%      42.8   13.7   2.2%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5  10.6%       0.9    1.5   9.1%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018