*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP902021 07/29/21 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       66%                                 92%

LAT  (deg N)     11.7  11.9  12.0  12.3  12.3  13.0  13.2  13.1  13.9  14.4  14.5  14.6  14.9
LON  (deg W)    107.1 108.2 109.3 110.4 111.8 114.7 117.3 119.3 121.1 123.1 124.9 126.1 127.4
DTL  (km)         837   880   937   975  1072  1207  1325  1466  1522  1616  1746  1835  1923
TRACK SOURCE     AP13  AP13  AP13  AP13  AP13  AP13  AP13  AP13  AP13  AP13  AP13  AP13  AP13

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   66% is  1.5 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   92% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -3.1   7.3%      -2.0   -3.9  16.5%
VORTICITY          1.6    1.5  13.9%       1.5    2.2  23.4%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    4.1  19.8%      14.9    6.0  34.4%
RH                79.1   82.5  10.2%      74.8   84.4   5.8%
GOES              42.9   14.5   2.6%      42.8   14.5   2.4%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5  11.8%       0.9    1.5   9.2%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018