*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP902021 07/29/21 18 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       69%                                 90%

LAT  (deg N)     12.5  13.0  13.3  13.5  13.8  14.5  14.7  16.3  17.0  17.9  16.9  15.9  15.4
LON  (deg W)    108.1 109.6 110.9 112.1 113.8 116.3 117.6 119.3 121.5 124.4 127.7 129.3 130.9
DTL  (km)         820   861   924  1002  1087  1144  1212  1192  1289  1461  1780  1975  2144
TRACK SOURCE     AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  AP21  TABM  TABM

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   69% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   90% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -4.0   8.8%      -2.0   -1.4   9.7%
VORTICITY          1.6    2.1  18.3%       1.5    2.9  29.8%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    8.7  17.0%      14.9   10.3  32.0%
RH                79.1   83.9   9.8%      74.8   81.4   7.2%
GOES              42.9   14.5   2.7%      42.8   14.5   2.4%
DVORAK             0.9    1.5  12.1%       0.9    1.5   9.3%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018