* NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX * * GFS VERSION * * EP902021 07/30/21 06 UTC * TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 Prob of Genesis 63% 90% LAT (deg N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.2 13.6 13.9 13.8 13.8 14.5 14.8 15.1 LON (deg W) 110.2 111.6 113.3 114.5 115.4 117.4 119.4 121.6 123.7 125.0 125.9 127.4 129.1 DTL (km) 935 1008 1130 1188 1239 1331 1432 1554 1709 1807 1826 1930 2029 TRACK SOURCE AP24 AP24 AP24 AP24 AP24 AP24 AP24 AP24 AP24 AP24 AP24 AP24 AP24 TCGI 0-48h Genesis Forecast: 63% is 1.4 times the sample mean ( 44%) TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast: 90% is 1.6 times the sample mean ( 56%) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS ******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ****** AVG TCGI CONT AVG TCGI CONT DIVERGENCE -2.0 0.1 2.6% -2.0 -2.1 11.8% VORTICITY 1.6 1.6 14.1% 1.5 2.0 22.2% VERTICAL SHEAR 12.9 10.5 14.9% 14.9 11.7 31.3% RH 79.1 84.2 9.2% 74.8 84.1 6.1% GOES 42.9 28.7 5.4% 42.8 28.7 5.0% DVORAK 0.9 2.0 16.3% 0.9 2.0 13.3% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius) GENESIS CLIM = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) DIVERGENCE = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1) VORTICITY = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1) VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) RH = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%) GOES = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%) DVORAK = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB Version 3.0, July 2018