*         NE PACIFIC TC GENESIS INDEX          *
                      *                GFS VERSION                   *
                      *           EP902021 07/30/21 12 UTC           *

TIME (hr)           0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
Prob of Genesis                                       77%                                 92%

LAT  (deg N)     12.5  12.5  12.7  12.4  12.5  13.0  13.4  13.9  14.4  15.3  15.7  16.2  16.9
LON  (deg W)    110.3 112.1 113.6 114.7 114.8 117.6 119.8 122.0 124.0 125.9 127.4 128.5 130.3
DTL  (km)         950  1078  1183  1268  1262  1362  1478  1581  1683  1769  1856  1896  1984
TRACK SOURCE     AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10  AP10

TCGI  0-48h Genesis Forecast:   77% is  1.8 times the sample mean (  44%)
TCGI 0-120h Genesis Forecast:   92% is  1.6 times the sample mean (  56%)

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INDIVIDUAL PREDICTOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROBABILITY OF GENESIS 

               *******  48-HR ******   ******* 120-HR ******
                   AVG   TCGI   CONT       AVG   TCGI   CONT
DIVERGENCE        -2.0   -1.9   5.8%      -2.0   -1.5   9.8%
VORTICITY          1.6    2.1  19.2%       1.5    2.5  25.8%
VERTICAL SHEAR    12.9    8.2  17.8%      14.9   10.3  31.5%
RH                79.1   86.3   8.5%      74.8   86.4   5.0%
GOES              42.9   40.5   8.3%      42.8   40.5   7.0%
DVORAK             0.9    2.0  17.6%       0.9    2.0  13.0%

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PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

GENESIS CLIM   = Climatological Prob (%) of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database) 
DIVERGENCE     = GFS 850 hPa Horizontal Divergence (x10-7 s-1)
VORTICITY      = GFS 850 hPa Vorticity (x10-6 s-1)
VERTICAL SHEAR = GFS 200-850 hPa Vertical Shear (kt)
RH             = GFS 600-850 hPa Relative Humidity (%)
GOES           = GOES Water Vapor Pixels Colder than -40C (%)
DVORAK         = Dvorak T-number, source: TAFB

Version 3.0, July 2018